Analysis. Where and why the crypto and ICO market is heading?

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Part 1. People are already familiar with the concept of “cryptocurrency “ and scared.

In 2017 one of the reasons of market capitalization growing was the hype around cryptocurrencies. The knowledge of the masses was narrow to two concepts: “I have possibility to invest to it” and “It brings money”. Over time, the happy owners of tokens and coins began to understand the cryptocurrency system, architecture and origin. So, now it is not enough to create an attractive landing page and beat the drum to the whole world about the huge profit or innovation.

Now you need to present the MVP, have a full juridical registration and a really strong team (but sometimes there are exceptions).

If we take a look at Google Trends data for the end 2017 and October 2018, we will see a catastrophic decreasing of interest:

ICO GoogleTrends (worldwide 12 month)
Cryptocurrency GoogleTrends (worldwide 12 month)

Since people already know what cryptocurrency is, they do not need to ask questions in social networks, use search engines, etc. Thus, the mention about cryptocurrencies and their participation in the media sphere is decreasing, and as a result, the number of users also is reducing.

But there is a very curious pattern. If we narrow down the search to the last 3 months, we’ll see the following:

Cryptocurrency GoogleTrends (90 days worldwide)

Cryptocurrency Google Trends (90 days worldwide) show us that today there is a growing popularity of Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and ICO in countries of the Second and Third world. It is not probable that this changing will have a huge impact on ICO or the exchange rate of cryptocurrencies now, but in the long term it will definitely show the result.

The today’s leader is Turkey with 18% of respondents who have cryptocurrency in stock:

But we have to take in consideration that such countries as Iran, Venezuela, Ghana, South Africa, Brazil did not participate in the survey.

Nevertheless, all these countries are united with Turkey by one factor — the decreasing of the national currency. People are frightened by the currency instability, they try to save their savings and the best choice for it is buying cryptocurrency. Moreover, most of these countries are pressured by the United States in the way of acting directly on the government or by imposing sanctions on the central bank. That’s why, people don’t have any opportunity to save savings in USD.

The exchange rate of the above mentioned countries against the dollar:

TRY/USD 1 year
IRR/USD
BRR/USD

Unfortunately, we don’t have any information about Venezuela because the Venezuelan Bolivar is involving into hyperinflation and has recently lost 6 zeros after the denomination. At the same time, the whole world economic dynamics is very negative — in all countries, not including China. In one of my projects, China currently ranks 2nd position in the number of visitors to the site. It is worth to add here a judicial precedent: “according to the laws of China — it is not prohibited to have bitcoins”, thus, they can participate in airdrop, bounty etc. But could Chinese people participate in ICO or not, is still a question.

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