How to Correctly Predict Bitcoin Price Levels 2019 – Bitcoin Trading Lab – Medium
How to Correctly Predict Bitcoin Price Levels 2019
Excerpts from a recent Interview between Lena from ‘That Crypto Hustle’ and OptiToken CEO Sean Donato from 03/01/2019 in the wording. The entire interview is available on YouTube at the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8i_iE9F5hQ
Lena: „Welcome to 2019, another episode of “That Crypto Hustle“! I´m here with Sean Donato who is the founder of OptiToken. How is it going Sean? Happy New Year!
Sean: Happy new year to you as well! How are you?
Lena: Good, excited to be back in the game and, well, today is a very special day actually. It´s the 10th year anniversary of Bitcoin. What is it exactly? This is when the lines of code, known as Genesis Block, were actually executed. An then on january 12th is when the first transaction was made from Satoshi Nakamoto to Hal Finney. Did you know this?
Sean: I didn´t know exactly what was the Genesis the idea of transaction just it´s Proof-of-Keys-Day and Bitcoin anniversary.
Lena: It´s crazy it´s already been 10 years bitcoin been around and just more proof, i mean personally, for me, that it´s not going anywhere. And i keep on reading different people hating on crypto, especially on Facebook. And different entrepreneurs that i follow just saying like `Oh everyone who jumped in the crypto-bandwagon, you are trying to chase the dragon and also you are feeling FOMO and you might want to reconsider other options at this point´. I´m like `No, i´m still headstrong into crypto, i really believe in it´. So let´s look at some of the predictions , like what do you think is going to happen in 2019?
Sean: Well, you know we´ve spoke about that 50 month moving average a lot. It´s hard for me to say that we already hit the bottom or that i could easily see us going back and retest in that area. I have trouble seeing it break down, like i really think there is a lot of money that comes in, as we approach 3000$. You know, here’s the thing. It´s like bitcoins potential disruption is so large, it´s so big that it could destroy certain industries like banking and stuff. So you know the clear way to hedge against that is to own a lot of bitcoin. And that´s why banks buy it right now. Also they can day-trade it or position-trade it and profit off it. The problem is, they can´t really try to time the bottom, they can´t wait and say `Hey it´s going to be 1,300$, it´s gonna go to 2,000$´. So typically institution will kind of pick accumulation levels and just start accumulating and it´s heavy accumulation! The cheaper bitcoin gets, the easier it is to buy with amounts of money and kind of support the price in the sense like if bitcoins a dollar. You know if bitcoin was $1 you and I could probably support the entire market together if needed. That being said you know around maybe 3,000$, give or take, banks can really do a lot to the market and that´s just banks. I´m not sure who else is a player, i just know it´s easy to identify a motive for that institution type at this level. So it could go lower but also is we have the markets really exhausted on the sell side still. These moves can only be so strong at a time you short if there was some fundamental damage to bitcoin like some kind of a global ban or something than the story differs, but there is nothing like this happened. So, since that´s the case, you know a move up or down has only so much potential strength to it typically. So it´s still pretty exhausted if you look at the bigger time picture.
Lena: What do you mean by bigger time frames?
Sean: Like the weekly-, monthly- and the three-month charts, it´s still pretty oversold. And we can take a look at those, i want also to talk about time frames. I´m trying to find a tool for something very cool called fibonacci time zone, I did not find that on TradingView.
Lena: But what does that do?
Sean: Fibonacci time zone, i mean really we don´t even need a chart to do it, but the fibonacci sequence is proven to be relevant in many different ways in finance. It´s not a perfect tool but for some reason it has a relevance and basically anything we can quantify we can seek to find patterns using those fibonacci sequences. Well, time is certainly quantifiable and as opposed to using price and fibonacci levels we are looking at time instead and looking at the days or weeks we find more relevant. So we are looking at 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 etc. With the fibonacci sequence it is essential you are taking the next number and sequence is the addition of the two priors. So we start off with 1 + n 1 1 1 is 2, 1 2 is 3, 2 + 3 is 5, 3 + 5 is 8, you see it´s pretty simple.
Lena: So you are using that to kind of better predict your trades, you´ve been linking that better than other methods?
Sean: Well, you are talking about 2019 and how can we look to the future and see what will happen. Looking at a price prediction is not saying when that´s gonna happen, with bitcoin price we have as a trader, I have two things that i need that i want to find out. That´s a future price and when that price will be that future price, I dont know if i mention her or not but i´m pretty sure that i spoke aboit it on the show with you that i could see easily see 3,000 lind of acting the way 6,000 did for a large portion of 2018. We were just sideways for a while, there really wasn´t a ton of new buyers coming in to generate volume to push the price up to new levels. But at the same time there is accumulation happening on the lower end. i had the theory that miner entities were supporting the price heavily there. And that was because the mining opertations are more profitable at this level. Here at $3000 It could be a different reason, or like my theory, some banks are accumulating and that could act as support in the same fashion. I dont think that it´s like the miners accumulating here i don´t think they have the balance books to make it a daily operation to support the bitcoin price this lowq. So that being said i could see that being the scenario as well we are sideways between 3,000$ and 4,000$, 3,000$ and 5,000$ something like that.
Lena: Okay so let´s look at the charts.
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