The Bitcoin World Not So Far Away – Good Audience
Not because we lack the necessary imagination, but because we really don’t know what we need, until can’t live without it. The internet, cars, planes, watches, the list goes on. Until the industrial revolution people wouldn’t measure time in minutes, because time wasn’t supposed to be measured in minutes. How could it be?
The technology wasn’t there yet.
From horses to cars, from letters to emails, from newspapers to social media posts. The world I cannot imagine in 20 years is what excites me, by far. Not price. You want to know why?
Because price measures the usefulness of a certain technology; and right now, cryptocurrencies are mostly limited to geeks, outlaws, technologists, people who were naive enough to keep their stacks when Bitcoin mooned and very desperate people.
People like myself and, probably, you as well. Folk in Venezuela, now in Argentina, maybe soon in Brazil. Anyone who’s curious enough to look through the keyhole.
Take, for instance, the data provided from Local Bitcoins, right above. The number of transactions has been steadily increasing, since the major drop in December 2017. Biggest volume comes from those countries I mentioned above, right after the US.
My point is: technology enables Human Beings to behave differently and when we find out why we should, we simply change our behavior, without really thinking about it.
People are shifting, slowly but surely. Remember that.
Right now we’re experiencing a terrible, but needed, bear-market. The technology, although has been developing quite nicely (I’ll get there), is nowhere ready for mass adoption. We still lack all key dimensions: infrastructure, understanding and applications. We’re getting there, thought, slowly but surely.
The Lightning Network, although has been developing gracefully is nowhere ready for mass adoption.
This year we’ve successfully seen the released of a worldwide beta version and more than 2000 nodes are now active, thanks to Lightning Labs and their amazing effort.
Other projects like the Casa Lightning Node, which created a small hardware device so that users can easily setup a LN node(much like you setup your internet via a modem), and the Open Node team, who received a hefty investment from the community’s favorite Bitcoin lover Tim Draper, are also promoting better use-cases and implementations for this amazing decentralized P2P payment channels technologies, built alongside the Bitcoin layer.
Let’s get back to the beginning. Remember by initial point to first focus in technology and maybe later look at price?
Spot on, mate.
If there are close to 22 Million Exchange users, we can assume that number should be close to the actual number of cryptocurrency users, as there are few ways (OTC) to buy and sell bitcoin — so the majority of people will buy and sell through online exchanges. Peer-To-Peer or not.
Another amazing source to better understand growth and user adoption, is to compare the number of cryptocurrency users with the number of Internet users. At least, in terms of adoption rate, the two metrics are very similar as they both represent novel technologies, way ahead of their time (or not), meaning, there are similar bottlenecks in terms of public perception and trust.
Consider the following: it took 10 years, after reaching 16 million users, for the internet to achieve close to 1 billion people worldwide.
Possibly a lot.
I think people should relax and focus in ways to improve the field. By learning, creating value or investing into good projects with positive goals, promoting decentralization. Anyway you see fit, just don’t get too desperate because price-action isn’t going upwards as expected.
It rarely does.
That’s why there’s so very few good TA analysts, as price predictions are hard to make.
Whatever the long-term future holds, for Bitcoin’s price, in case there are no black swan events, major cataclysms that destroy the world as we know it, or any major world war, the economic panorama I see, is for a major global push in favor of more transparent means of communication and transacting.
Economic crises now have a new and more fearful enemy: decentralized trust.
The World Of Tomorrow
One of the people I enjoy reading and listening to the most is, our dear Andreas Antonopolous. He once said, during one of his talks, something I find rather poetic.
“[People born after 2008] won’t know a world in which you cannot send money to anywhere and to anyone”
I hope you’re as positive as I am, about how technology is changing the world. So far it has been open-source software and crowdfunding campaigns.
Interestingly, Cryptocurrencies enable a whole new universe of choices.
Fully decentralized applications, allowing users to monetize their online presence, choices, content and time; companies and people raising money from anywhere in the world to develop new ideas and concepts, creating valuable communities built around token transactions towards a common goal.
Kids, who can now have and use money just by downloading an app. Fully independently, who will never understand why we need permission to transact.
Yes, I also understand AI and neural networks, drones and flying cars, hyperloops and novelty tech will most likely tilt the world towards more efficient means of communicating and transacting. However, what we really need is effectiveness: a way to endow every single human being to transact and store value, in the form of money, data or information, to anywhere at anytime, fully permissionless.
With effectiveness, a brand new universe of possibilities opens-up: decentralized payment channels for micro-transactions.
Can you imagine the impact 2 billion people will have in the world economy?
Just wait and see: slowly but surely.