Bitcoin price prediction after Bitcoin halving 2020
As it is well-known, historically, the market sentiment towards Bitcoin dramatically changes after each halving. However, the bullish sentiment isn’t self-understood in such cases as the market sometimes reacts unexpectedly. Still, since the Bitcoin halving is one of the most anticipated upcoming events, we will take you on a journey to explain some history, quote the best sources, and explain the reasons for such price predictions.
In order to do that, we are going to answer and explain these questions and events:
- What is Bitcoin halving?
- Bitcoin halving 2012
- Bitcoin halving 2016
- Bitcoin halving 2020
- Why does Bitcoin halving affect the price?
- Top 10 Bitcoin prediction charts for Bitcoin halving 2020
Bitcoin halving is the event that happens every 210,000 blocks that pass through the Bitcoin network. When this pre-programmed situation occurs, the rewards that BTC miners receive for mining blocks, verifying transactions and, thus, securing the network, is cut down in half. This can be viewed as Bitcoin’s answer to inflation as it’s code is programmed to reduce the influx of new coins in the market, thus making the asset more scarce.
Those 210,000 blocks are important because according to that number, we can estimate the date when the next halving is going to take place. The 2020 halving is going to take place at the block hight 630,000, which is due to happen on May 17th, 2020.
Currently, the mining reward is set at 12,5 BTC. Therefore, analogically, the new Bitcoin block reward is going to decrease to 6,25. It has also been calculated that, following this tempo, the last BTC block reward is going to be distributed by the year 2140.
Since the Bitcoin genesis block was mined on January 3rd, 2009, the first halving took place in 2012, followed by the second one in 2016. So, let’s see how these events influenced the market.
Halving is nothing more than the pre-programmed inflation control mechanism designed to create more scarcity. Assets that are scarce more often than not are more valuable than those that are available in abundance.
Such is the case with Bitcoin. Once the mining rewards are halved, it is natural that the supply of this asset on exchanges is going to be lower. On the other hand, the interest in BTC trading and investing is projected to grow. Even more so because the new markets, like recently launched Bakkt BTC futures, are raising the attention of BTC as an investment. Of course, according to the laws of the market, where the supply is limited and the demand rises, the prices rise along with the demand.
In the end, please note that every analysis presented in this article may be thwarted by some new-found market conditions. Therefore, trade responsibly and always combine technical with fundamental analysis.
The first halving of the mining reward happened on November 28th, 2012, cutting the 50 BTC per block reward to 25 BTC. Even though the market is somewhat slow to react to these events, after exactly a year and three days, the price, which started around $10, hit the new all-time-high (ATH) of $1,000, making that a healthy 1000% increase.
This was the first bull run of major proportions in the history of the cryptocurrency market that foreshadowed the events caused by the second halving which is going to propel Bitcoin’s price towards the moon.
The second halving of the Bitcoin mining reward took place on July 9th, 2016, when BTC miners started receiving 12.5 Bitcoin instead of 25 for mining a block. The events following the last halving are better known as the biggest bull run in the history of any global market.
Again, the market was lazy to react, but during the 1 year, 5 months and 9 days-long period, the price of Bitcoin climbed from roughly $1,000 towards the last ATH of $19,843. With that boom came the inevitable mainstream exposure for Bitcoin as it became a part of everyday financial market news outlet’s agenda.
The approximate date that we have provided is a result of the following a simple equation and is nothing more than approximation:
- 1 BTC block is mined every 10 minutes
- 144 blocks are mined every 24 hours (6 x 24 = 144)
- the current block is 590,675 (August 18th, 2019)
- 39,325 blocks left until halving (630,000–590,675 = 39,325)
- 39,325 blocks / 144 blocks in a day = 273 days
- August 18th, 2019 + 273 days = May 17th, 2020
So, what to expect after the date?
For miners, obviously, the block reward is going to be smaller, but for the rest of us, the future is uncertain despite the historical facts. If the interest in Bitcoin stays the same, and the scarcity greater, the natural thing would be for the price of the asset to increase. However, and as you will see in the predictions section, it is difficult to give an exact number.
However, it is also being said that around 30% of all the existing Bitcoin is unreachable by the owners due to negligence, deaths, hardware malfunctions without backed private keys, etc, further enhancing the level of scarcity.
For your information, with the next halving, the inflation rate of Bitcoin will be set at 1.80% per annum.
Further Reading: Bitcoin Price 2017 vs Bitcoin 2019 Prediction
Tom Lee, Global Advisor’s Funds Head of Research, thinks Bitcoin could rise to $91,000 by March 2020, based on the thorough database, statistics, and graphs that help to visualize short-term and long-term trends.
Tom Lee’s Bitcoin price prediction 2020: $91,000
As you can see in the chart above, the calculations also include the cost of mining Bitcoin, which is essential for today’s subject. Moreover, the same chart consists of hourly, daily and monthly trading trends and technical analysis, showing us a steady rise despite the occasional drawbacks, also known as bear markets.
IHODL Bitcoin price prediction 2020: $100,000
As it is clearly visible, their long-term prediction is also bullish as they forecast that the price of BTC could hit a new ATH of $100,000.
IHODL Bitcoin price prediction 2020: Unspecified, but could reach $100,000 in the coming years.
Josh Rager is a trader and investor with a popular Twitter profile followed by almost 60,000 followers. He has done a variety of informative charts on a long-term bitcoin price prediction based on previous halving outcomes.
Josh Rager’s Bitcoin price prediction 2020: $150,000
Although he believes the for the next Bitcoin cycle peak we will have to wait until July 2023, when there is a possibility that BTC will hit $150,000, he offers a moderate perspective on the period directly following the halving.
He doesn’t see BTC hitting the new ATH in 2020, which correlates with our analysis from the beginning of the article.
BeinCrypto’s Bitcoin price prediction 2020: $144,000
It is visible that the have also calculated the accumulation periods, which we have already witnessed, and the 1-year “prior-to” periods.
PlanB is a popular medium profile that has done an analysis based on stock-to-flow and halving. Tere, the author, focuses on the element of scarcity as the driving force behind the rising valuation of Bitcoin.
PlanB Bitcoin price prediction 2020: $55,000
The chart provided by PlanB also confirms the bullish forecast, which would like to see Bitcoin climbing towards $55,000 after the halving occurs (not necessarily 2020).
Hackernoon also brings a similar forecast as the outlets mentioned above. However, this is a wee bit more optimistic as they claim that BTC could also see a significant rise in 2020.
Nevertheless, according to Hackernoon, the new ATH, which they predict to be around $100,000, will be reached as soon as 2021.
Hackernoon Bitcoin price prediction 2020: a rise, but an ATH of $100,000 will be reached in 2021.
NewsBTC dismantles the idea that halving can affect the price of Bitcoin directly like other outlets state. Instead, they are looking at a wider perspective. In order for BTC to reach $100,000 after the halving, a lot of things have to come to pass, NewsBTC claims.
However, fueled by the dry statistics, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could reach $1 trillion, which would, in turn, push the price towards $55,00 in 2020.
NewsBTC Bitcoin price prediction 2020: $55,000
In their extensive article about Bitcoin, Capital.com brought us a 2020 prediction along with all the reasons for forecasting the following price.
While the outlet states their belief that BTC may reach $23,500 by the end of this year, they went even more optimistic for the upcoming year. According to Capital.com, BTC will start 2020 somewhere around $25,000 just to reach $33,000 at the end of the year.
Capital.com Bitcoin price prediction 2020: $33,000
In their extensive research published on August 15th, Digital Asset Research reveals their logic according to which Bitcoin is able to reach $60,000 as a direct result of the upcoming halving.
The chart they used to back up their claim, of course, looks similar to other sources placed to explain their predictions. The only difference between the forecast published by Digital Asset Forecast is that they see BTC at the ATH much sooner than the majority of others.
Digital Asset Research Bitcoin price prediction 2020: $60,000
In the end, we bring you our price prediction, which is based on our technical analysis as well as on the outside experts’ opinions and calculations.
The daily BTC/USD TradingView chart above shows that the price of Bitcoin may be traveling inside a big triangle which is going to close towards the end of the year. Like it is the case with all triangles, the price may break out upwards or downwards. However, looking at the same chart, we can see that long-term support is, in fact, rising despite the current bearish trend.
The same chart shows that, if the price breaks the $7,400 support, BTC has two crucial levels in 2020. The $6,000 and $5,000 support will be vital if the bearish trend continues into the next year.
On the other hand, if the price breaks out northwards, we may yet see Bitcoin around $15,000 even during the first fiscal quarter of 2020. If that happens, BTC could experience a healthy year, fluctuating between $15,000 and $20,000. However, it is very unlikely that Bitcoin will hit a new ATH next year.
At the same time, more than a few analysts see Bitcoin decline as a familiar falling wedge pattern, which is, by default, a sign of a bullish reversal. The wedge looks like it may enclose the movement of BTC all the way towards the end of the year with the same resistance line as the previously mentioned triangle. Still, if the price breaks out upwards (which it should if the formation is indeed wedge), we will surely see BTC above $10,000 or even $12,00 in 2020.
Crypto Coin Trade Bitcoin price prediction 2020: $14,000