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A speculative piece on why I think Filecoin (FIL) will continue its upward trajectory

There are a lot of questions about Filecoin (FIL) popping up in the daily thread which is my home so I’m going to try to explain my thought process and research behind getting in “early” and the potential I still believe is available price action-wise. I’ve never been a fan of writing giant paragraphs in the daily thread because the effort tends to outweigh the exposure which is why I’m doing so here. This is not financial advice and it’s definitely not the most technical but I feel like I got this one right by using real-world common sense. I did my research around 2/20/2021 and purchased my stack of FIL a few days after digesting it.

The thing about FIL pumping, besides Greyscale, and the main reason I invested in FIL is that it has somewhat of a true monopoly, in my eyes, which is a very rare thing in crypto. Storage even in a traditional sense is not very competitive, there will always be some sort of competition but unlike ETH for example, where there’s a handful of network coins competing for the same piece of the pie, storage is a much smaller uncontested piece of the pie. On that note, when you think about Filecoin, which other storage cryptos can you say it’s in competition with? I didn’t have an answer to this question myself which is one of the main reasons why I invested in it.

A month ago, when I was searching for the answer to that question, I went to a site a friend had shown me a few weeks prior. It’s called [Cryptoslate.com](https://Cryptoslate.com). One of the functions I use is the option to break crypto into “sectors” and one of those sectors is “storage”. When I went to the storage sector I was met with this: [Top 10 storage crypto](https://cryptoslate.com/cryptos/storage/). As you can see, there’s a large difference in storage market cap. I started at ANKR because it was what I was interested in at the time and worked my way up but really I feel like the only 3 worth mentioning at this time are Siacoin, BitTorrent, and Filecoin.

* [**Siacoin**](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/siacoin) – I started with the smallest because I was trying to figure out why it’s dwarfed by things like BitTorrent and Filecoin. It has its own Blockchain which I thought was great. It’s also community-driven and open-source which are both factors I think are important. The biggest concern I had with Siacoin was its lack of adoption in the time that it has existed since 2015? I felt 6 years is a long time to lack significant adoption for a service so basic yet important, within a sector lacking in competition, so to speak. That was enough for me to move on from Siacoin and onto BitTorrent
* [**BitTorrent**](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bittorrent) – This was probably the easiest one to make my decision on. Two red flags immediately appeared, the first was that it’s run on the TRON blockchain which has a controversial figurehead in founder Justin Sun. The second red flag was that there were a handful of people calling it a scam in multiple places that I’ve looked. Regardless of how they felt, the most damning thing for BitTorrent besides the fact it’s trading under a cent is that it’s not exactly traditional storage. True to its name, BitTorrent is Torrent-focused, enabling you to download at faster speeds, so as far as I was concerned, it wasn’t even in contention in what I was looking for to diversify my portfolio via storage.
* [**Filecoin**](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/filecoin) – Filecoin was released in 2020 and has steadily outpaced its competition in every way. Funnily enough, I found myself reading about Filecoin when I was researching a multitude of other cryptos, its reach is kind of scary, it’s providing a service for many. When I compared the market cap it confirmed what I was starting to believe, it’s enormous. Anything else is dwarfed 3-4 Billion times over. This was enough for me to recognize that I needed to add this to my portfolio because of the potential that it has.

It felt great to be rewarded for my research but I realized that Filecoin had been under my nose for quite some time on Coinbase and I had missed it. It goes to show that as important as storage is, it’s something we frequently overlook without even noticing. We don’t think about the file on our computer until we need it, just like we don’t think about the storage required for something to download until it doesn’t fit or threatens to use too much space.

**Random** **Price prediction**: In the coming months I expect Filecoin to sit somewhere comfortably between $130-$150. I came up with that prediction when it was $30 so now that it’s trading at $80 I can confidently make that prediction without sound like a complete hopium shill.

The analogy I’ll leave you with is this one:If you were going to store something super important, would you pay for the mom-and-pop storage facility down the road that’s nothing more than a gated property of garages, exposed to the elements, or would you pay a little extra to store your item at one of those indoor, guarded, multi-floor, well lit, heated, storage facilities you can often see near exits of the freeway. To me, the latter is what Filecoin is while everything else is a mom-and-pop storage.



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9 Comments

  1. Good post, never given it much consideration. Does it have privacy features designed into it, can data be stored anonymously and privately? I like the concept of storage in crypto, could be big.

  2. I’m pretty sure this project will continue to grow since it has a ton of potential as a form of decentralized storage, which will definitely be a key medium when decentralization matures well enough.

    **One aspect that caught my eye**:
    The cost entry point to mine Filecoin requires several terabytes of SSD hard disk and a 24/7 internet connection. It is more expensive to begin mining a FIL than any other GPU mine-able coin. In other words, if you want to mine FIL you will have to invest big bucks to get in and will probably be more committed to this coin for the long run, which is the ideal mindset for a storage-type miner IMHO

  3. I think siacoin will ultimately be the winner from your list, with skynet it is basically creating its own internet. Already having its own browser and already launching a social media platform built on the blockchain. Marketing has been the issue with SC but that is due to no ICO and being more decentralized and community driven. At the end of the day I like filecoin and the jumps have been great but I think long term Sia will be the way to go.

  4. Market cap isn’t the only yard stick, especially when you fail to mention coin supply. Filecoin has 57 million tokens, siacoin has 47 billion. Of course filecoin s token has a higher price and market cap.

    Arweave is a competitor as well. Time will tell who wins. Siacoin is a cheap investment for one of the 4 decent decentralized storage solutions.

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