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Best reasoning I’ve seen in a while for $400k price prediction

I’m the first to say that price predictions are essentially worthless, but finally, here’s a reasoned article that makes sense.

[https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/how-halvings-will-bring-the-bitcoin-price-to-400000](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/how-halvings-will-bring-the-bitcoin-price-to-400000)



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5 Comments

  1. I’d say that rather than predicting the peak price, it’s more useful to look at when the bull market is likely to end and previous cycles suggest the final quarter of this year. How high it goes by then is anyone’s guess but once the price goes vertical, we’re into the end game for this cycle.

    The article gives a good argument for Microstrategy selling a large portion of their stack as Michael Saylor suggests never selling. I don’t doubt that once the top is in, there will be some serious panic selling by those late to the party as well as cashing in by those who got in early.

    It’s hard to see volatility reducing until there have been enough cycles with diminishing volatility that most holders are seeing gains more akin to the traditional markets.

  2. Even if there is a pattern to be repeated as the author suggests, the chart is over-representing the next peak.

    It was about 39x between Epoch 1 and Epoch 2, about 17x between Epoch 2 and Epoch 3. Thus by their logic the inferred multiple between Epoch 3 and Epoch 4 should be more like 8x, I.e. projecting to a peak at only $157k in the first half of 2022. I am not predicting the next peak, just saying their chart is flawed.

  3. I think with institutional adoption and Michael Saylor always lurking in the shadows the halvings and historical trends will no longer be of relevance. Too little liquid bitcoin available and too many people waiting for the dips

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