Google searches for “Bitcoin”
In 2021, the peak in searches occurred during the week of 16-22 May, when the price fell below $40,000, after having been close to $65,000 in mid-April.
Curiously, the week of April 11-17 saw no spike in research, despite the ATH, but there was one the following week when the price fell below $50,000. However, it was only the fourth peak of the year in terms of search volume.
The second highest peak was in early January, when the price of BTC hit $40,000 for the first time in its history. The third was in late February, when it exceeded $55,000 for the first time in its history.
Searches during the ATH
The total volume of searches last week was less than half that of May, showing that interest in Bitcoin at the moment is still far from its yearly highs, despite the price having been hovering above $60,000 for ten days now.
In the light of this data, it is possible to imagine that the current period is not yet characterized by a real FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), although a certain fear of “missing the train” seems to be shared by those investors who have not yet invested, perhaps waiting for a strong retracement.
A familiar scenario
One curious thing is that Bitcoin’s current price trend seems to closely replicate, with due proportion, that of October 2017.
Calculating the ratio between the average prices of September 2017 ($4,300) and September 2021 ($48,000), the month as a whole closed with a price proportionally about ten times that of the previous cycle. The fact is that in the first 25 days of October, this proportion was more or less confirmed.
The price of Bitcoin
While there are some analysts who argue that the price of Bitcoin at the moment might be a bit excessive, there seem to be many who argue that it could rise further. Some are certain that BTC could make new highs this week, others that it could even break through $70,000.
Should the trend over the next seven days follow that of the same period four years ago, by a factor of about ten, it is indeed possible that the above predictions will come true.
The fact is that there are several indicators, including on-chain, that seem to believe the bears, and confirm that the bull run that began in late September may continue. For example, BTC held on exchanges are few and falling, a sign that the whales are probably not going to sell.
There are also many bullish forecasts for the medium term, although there are also bearish ones, with $100,000 being the most important target during this phase.
However, it is worth bearing in mind that in 2017 the price of Bitcoin rose from around $6,000 at the end of October to almost $20,000 in mid-December, before falling back to just above $6,000 in January and February.
Given that 2017 was the year following the second halving, and 2021 is the year following the third halving, it is indeed possible that something similar will happen, although it is extremely difficult to say how likely it actually is.