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BTC/Crypto is not in an another bubble, there will not be a major crash in the near future like the “experts” have suggested and here is why.

This so called current “BItcoin Bubble” as per various media and experts doesn’t actually exist. But a consideration should be made for the ripple effects of COVID.

I was considering just adding this to discussion thread but I think there has been some major fear mongering and in my opinion; outlandish predictions saying BTC hill hit $300,000 and then fall into a nuclear crypto winter taking a massive nose dive of the likes we saw in 2018 or worse.

Now for those of you who swear by the coin, I personally love it, but normally opt to hold alts like Eth and some defi types because of just how interesting the technology is and it is often financially more accessible with upswings that are more tailored to my investment preferences. I liken it to loving physical gold but holding mostly silver.

Again these concepts are nothing new, but what has been bothering me lately is these “New wave btc bubble” posts such as this:

[Bitcoin could surge to $300,000 — but winter could last for years when the bubble bursts, says crypto entrepreneur](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/22/bitcoin-btc-may-hit-300000-but-bubble-could-burst-after-peak-bobby-lee.html?__twitter_impression=true&recirc=taboolainternal)

I can say that after witnessing the recent surges and the volatility becoming semi-predictable and there may be notable and predictable patterns. These include which players enter the arena, who is spending on what, or even how someone of high significance tweeting gives tangible insight on how the BTC market will react. It seems evident to me.

Will BTC reach 300k anytime soon? Doubtful. 100k? Easily. Are we in another bubble that will cause a massive crash like 2018? Extremely unlikely if not downright ridiculous unless BTC suddenly breaks or gets dethroned and rendered obsolete which again is next to nil. It has become too much of a standard already.

Now the reason I make the point of saying this isn’t the typical “bubble” we have seen in the past with BTC, is because of the mass adoptions by almost all the big corporations and even government entities coming to realize there can actually exist a fine line of regulation yet very valuable and far more convenient and efficient uses for BTC by integration or in combination with fiat, than simply being a layman’s hodling commodity dismissed via nonsense like blackmarket fear mongering. And Federal panic that their printers are going to stop suddenly and society will be enveloped in darkness and utter financial chaos will ensue. This is irrational and improbable. Besides its too late even if that had any remote basis in reality.

i believe the Feds are actually realizing they cant fight the expansion of BTC and crypto in general for that matter (I’ll get to DeFi shortly). Feds have no choice as even banks are pressuring them to start taking cues from larger companies; and especially how payment providers are utilizing and integrating BTC on a global scale because we are now at that pivotal point – companies, e-commerce and private holders are also holding up a middle finger: ‘no governing body can completely and effectively stop this technology as was a main point of its inception. Working as intended.’

This isn’t a bubble, it is the cusp of global and mass adoption being accepted across almost all financial sectors with the standards being set by the tech and those who utilize it, the utilization is the very means of getting access to that control with no off switch and that is universal by design. Thus, I believe the value of BTC will gradually rise due to its ever increasing demand, usage and finity. Of course there are the outliers; we may see some usual ebbs and flows correlating to venture, integration and even potential future fork announcements, but BTCs nature and trajectory should theoretically keep it on a steady and organic rise in value through the foreseeable future.

Mining methods are already transitioning and mostly reserved to large data processing centres to even be substantually profitable, mass adoption is moving faster than we can even validate it. I am estimating new adoptions currently being made, around the globe, every minute of everyday. This could eventually include the Feds changing their tune to its allocation in a global fashion to acknowledge it as it was meant to be: a universal currency…just maybe.

Within the next few years it will likely be considered abnormal for global businesses and e-commerce companies to not have at least some form of integration of BTC or they will be left in the dust, considering the possible increase in values of proprietary software and hardware systems alone, that allow for companies to tap into the blockchain seamlessly. Not to mention the lost revenues.

On the other hand this is also where I believe a “parallel universe effect” could have Bitcoin no longer being the single, be all and end all, leader of the pack. Ethereum‘s smart tech and the freedom of DeFi are becoming more attractive and accessible, thus leading to a choice scenario within universal adoption. You would have BTC as the grandfathered staple “money” and then a form of Eth and DeFi as the universal and attractive choice for specialized transactions. Both providing the baseline and premium options. I guess an analogy would be “would you like to pay with cash, debit or credit?”

I am no expert on this stuff but as a career analyst I could see this being the ultimate outcome for global acceptances. What do you guys think about my opinions on this, is it flawed? And am I wrong to suggest there is no longer a bubble effect rather a stabilized adoption effect taking hold, meaning a future crash for BTC and ETH to be highly improbable?

Or maybe I forgot my meds today…



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48 Comments

  1. 100% it will correct to its fair value or lower, but no one can tell you when that will be. Anyone who says they know is a liar and/or delusional. Some technical guesswork might help you plan your moves with some success, but that is all. Every bull run is the same, everyone thinks the circumstances are different every time, and every time it’s the same. It will come back down. This is why so many people who have been burned before now know that trying to time the market almost never works. I say ‘almost’ because there is always some lucky folks who happen to be in the right place at the right time and get it right, but it’s pure chance for most of those people.

  2. With all due respect to your research, when an asset appreciates by 600% in 12 months and has a history of boom and bust cycles it’s probably a bubble. And BTC is nowhere near mass adoption.

  3. it’s fine and dandy that you put that much effort into your write-up, but the truth is nobody knows jack shit about where BTC price is going. It could either die tomorrow or go to a Million in 5 years, nobody knows.

  4. Just because I swear by the coin and believe in the long term future doesn’t mean I can’t be a realist. Infinite short term unsustained growth is not realistic and will just lose new people a lot of money when the bull run ends.

  5. As someone who has lived through the 2017 crash I fully expect it to go down again. While it might not go that far down it will establish a new base before the next bull run. The difference is that I will be scooping as much as I can when it does.

  6. I admire your effort to put up a qualitative research findings, but when it comes to BTC, we really do not know.

    We can hope for the best, and prepare for the worse. ![gif](emote|emo_pack_1|yeah)

  7. I would prefer a billion people to have bought a small amount of Bitcoin, than Elon to have bought a billion dollars worth. I DO think they will tame it and control it. Clapping – as the very institutions that have brought us to this point – start buying Bitcoin is IMO just plain strange. I see Bitcoin going further away from the people and into the hands of the wealthy more and more everyday. Who cares about hedge funds? Who cares that J P Morgan is getting involved along with many other corrupt institutions. It seems that these details are ignored, when for me at least, Bitcoin was created to get away from the cartels.

    The truth from my point of view is that this is not about Bitcoin anymore, but still just about making Fiat. It’s become about futures, trading, leverage and manipulation, just the same as the Fiat markets. Tell me what the difference is, besides you have control of your money, which is not entirely true. Because everybody still wants Fiat, ‘THEY’ control the on ramps and off ramps to that Fiat, and always will.

    I guess I thought Bitcoin was the peoples money, but I don’t feel that the case anymore. It’s just another commodity being bid up and down to make people more Fiat. And with that comes all the greed and manipulation that seems to haunt the human race over ideology.

    I have hodled for many years and will continue to do so, but not convinced of the direction Bitcoin is now going. When that guy on twatter proudly announces that X amount of Bitcoin has been moved off Coinbase, as though this is a great thing ( which in terms of Fiat accumulation it is, as per above ) To me it just means there is less for the people who actually need it, which is not the billion dollar companies. The system has not even been weakend by Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is now being assimilated by the leviathan that is modern day banking.

    Probably unpopular opinion, but just speaking my mind as a long term hodler who was hoping for change but just seeing more of the same.

  8. The “mass adoption” and “corporations and governments” will go away as soon as the price will go down. No corp or gov is there for BTC use-case, they just see easy buck from less experienced traders and will realise their gains without looking back or caring about BTC.

  9. Ok, so after reading through a bunch of comments and responding to a few, it feels like OP is not exactly taking criticisms nicely.

    I agree with a bit of what they say in the post but their responses read as if they are unwilling to have a conversation that would lead to them being wrong.

    Everyone is welcome to their own opinion, but when the other side of the conversation is on the defensive there can’t be constructive conversation.

  10. https://youtu.be/j1ckIU1zql8

    Here is from a podcast by Andreas Antonopoulos. He said the whole crypto space is in a bubble. But you have to understand what is a bubble. It doesn’t mean that the asset does not have any value but the asset went up in value in a short time and could in fact price correct.

    Crypto prices went parabolic and it is not hard to imagine people who bought low would take advantage of the high prices and take profit which could start the price to correct to a more sustainable level and then climb up again as more buyers come in.

  11. The thing with bubble you will most likely not know you are in one, because if people know or at least know the scenario when the bubble popped it will be priced in.

  12. The growth of institutional investors in the crypto space will definately slow down the crash, but to expect for-profit companies and institutional investors to hold the bags for us is not going to happen. These business minded people are not here to see blockchain tech grow. They are here to make money for their shareholders.

  13. Yeah, nice write up, but BTC and crypto will tank again. There will be another winter. It’s just the way it is. Mass adoption is not here and wouldn’t save the absolute shit this market will take in 9 months. Nice write up though

  14. whoa slow down the optimism

    i can give you 100 highly likely scenarios for a crash, but you dont have to look further than minor fud in politics to find dips. A major FUD will certainly do it. A key person like Vitalik dying also does it. Satoshi revealed as the CIA does it. You cant say with total certainty

  15. I read hundreds of posts like this in 2017 (I really should get a life) and they were just as earnest and reasoned as yours in many cases. The problem is that you just don’t understand the dynamics of investments and bubbles. They are not rational because they feed on emotions, fear and greed.

    Your main point is that financial institutions and business have invested in crypto and so they will keep it stable. Nothing says they have to keep their crypto, they can sell at any time and rebuy at a lower price. That is just sensible. The other point is that they represent all of 6% of bitcoin. That is basically piddle piss with so little impact as to be irrelevant. If they all sold at once, they could crash the price for a bit not devastating tho but boosting the price is much harder. If all retail investors want to sell, they can buy that up but who are they buying it for and do those people want something that has turned sour in the mouth of the general public?

    Ultimately, the opinions about reaching $300k and then crashing are at least based on history and the dynamics of speculative price bubbles. Crypto is a repeating price bubble with a 4 year cadence. Learn to accept that and act accordingly and you will be rewarded financially as a result.

  16. Don’t underestimate the power of the dark lords that actually run the world. If the right people want BTC or any other crypto to tank, it will, but thee more people that start accepting it as payment the better the chance of survival it has.

  17. It can drop in price a lot and this does not mean it is a bubble even de downjones and S&P have droped 50% im days but it is impossible to know what the price will be

  18. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

    We are close to the end of the bull run, but still have the possibility to spike upwards like how we’ve historically done. After that, according to the stock to flow model, we go into either a bear market or go sideways until around 2025 until the next halving

    Taking your money out when you’re in profit or leaving it in to earn interest in something like Blockfi/Celsius are options. Just make sure you made money, that’s all that matters

  19. **Bitcoin(BTC) Basic Info:** [Website](https://bitcoin.org) – r/Bitcoin – [Abstract](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_basicinfo#wiki_short_description) – [History](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_basicinfo#wiki_history) – [Exchanges](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_basicinfo#wiki_exchanges) – [Wallets](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_basicinfo#wiki_wallets)

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  20. I’m fully vested in crypto and my 50k target for April this year was far exceeded when it hit early this year. I now see 100k as absolutely going to happen within the next 6 months. Got various liquid beverages to pop open when this happens.

  21. Lmao I love when people talk about bubbles when like, yet again everyone is ignoring the housing market… seems it’s extended up to Canada this time as well. Very funny imo crypto is def the last safe haven.

  22. There are always boom and bust cycles or at least a up and down cycles. Even the dollar moves against other fiat and assets etc. I do believe we will see more industry and institutional adoption and holding of crypto but at some point there will be a correction or re-pricing crypto assets. It’s just as certain as the seasons changing.

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