Daily Discussion, October 09, 2021

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  1. Just put a substantial portion of a commission check into bitcoin. Trying to dca my portion of bitcoin up in my portfolio. Sitting at a little over 30 perfect, but would love to get it anywhere between 42-50

  2. I’m writing a paper on bitcoin liquidity. Just gathered a bunch of order book data and I found a strange phenomenon. [On Bitstamp the spreads are much larger than on any other platforms.]( Any idea why?

    [I also checked the 5% market depth and it seems Bitstamp also happens to be the least liquid.]( But are there any other factors for this?

  3. I’ve seen a lot of questions regarding wild price targets, risks. So I ran 10k bootstrap iterations of quarterly hypothetical price performance replicating BTC price distribution stats from the latest 4 years. Then posted the [10k simulated investment result statistics.]( This way new BTC investors could get a more precise feel for most-likely price gains (about 8.5%/quarter), swings, and implied probabilities associated. I’ll take any suggestions to make the simulated returns more accurate, thanks.

  4. update: I’ve paid 10 invoices of 1k sat each. I encourage all to use more LN!

    This weekend, I’m going to promote my twitter account (which only has 225 followers) and the Bitcoin Lightning network, by gifting 10000 sats. 1000 sat each to first 10 followers. Who paste their 1000 sat invoice in replies here on twitter. You can create LN invoice using Bluewallet, breez, phoenix, muun, or wallet of satoshi wallets.

    I tweet about Bitcoin mostly fyi.

    also, you have to follow me, goes unsaid! And then paste an invoice of 1000 sats each. I’d pay the first 10 such invoices.

  5. Just sent $300 worth of BTC to my ten year old sons wallet and transaction fees less than $2. Less than when I take $300 out of the ATM! And lightning would be next to nothing! Me likey the corn!

  6. My biggest issue with bitcoin as a global reserve currency is its origin story, like with the random bedroom mining and all the lost BTC due to complex encryption or forgotten passwords (around 20% of the total). Can bitcoin… transcend?

  7. The COT positions of CME futures and options were updated a few hours ago. So here’s the [updated price distribution forecast for the coming month](, based on the COT positions, and M2 money supply. I used quantile regression instead of neural networks this time, for likely stability over time for follow up forecasts.

    Current estimate from this model is for median price level to stay around $50k in the coming month. Lower and upper quartiles at $41.5K, $61.1K.

What do you think?

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