in

Daily Discussion, October 18, 2021

Please utilize this sticky thread for all general **Bitcoin** discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /r/Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!

If you don’t get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.

[Join us in the r/Bitcoin Chatroom!](https://discord.gg/K5H25KZHke)

Please check the [previous discussion thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/q9s8i4/daily_discussion_october_17_2021/) for unanswered questions.



View Reddit by rBitcoinModView Source

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings

28 Comments

  1. So serious question here. My brother currently has almost 150k in a vanguard fund. If you had access to that kind of money, would you cash it in and put it into Bitcoin now. What would his potential return be in 5-10 years time do you think?

  2. BTC, Firsts to Lasts

    (or “Play the Long Game”)

    1-10:

    first time over $1: Feb2011

    last time under $10: Oct2012

    total time spent between first entering and last leaving 1-figure BTC: 20 months

    10-100:

    first time over $10: May2011

    last time below $100: Sep2013

    total time spent between first entering and last leaving 2-figure BTC: 28 months

    100-1000:

    first time over $100: Apr2013

    last time under $1000: Mar2017

    total time spent between first entering and last leaving 3-figure BTC: 47 months

    1000-10000:

    first time over $1000: Nov2013

    last time under $10000: Sep2020

    total time spent between first entering and last leaving 4-figure BTC: 82 months

    10000-100000:

    first time over $10000: Nov2017

    last time under $100000: ?

    total time spent between first entering and last leaving 5-figure BTC: ?

    first derivative:

    (1-10)-(10-100):

    28 – 20 = 8 months

    (10-100)-(100-1000):

    47 – 28 = 19 months

    (100-1000)-(1000-10000):

    82 – 47 = 35 months

    second derivative:

    ((1-10)-(10-100))-((10-100)-(100-1000)):

    19 – 8 = 11 months

    ((10-100)-(100-1000))-((100-1000)-(1000-10000)):

    35 – 19 = 16 months

    third derivative:

    (((1-10)-(10-100))-((10-100)-(100-1000)))-(((10-100)-(100-1000))-((100-1000)-(1000-10000))):

    16 – 11 = 5 months

    assuming a constant third derivative (for no particular reason):

    projected second derivative:

    16 + 5 = 21 months

    projected first derivative:

    35 + 21 = 56 months

    projected total time between first entering and last leaving 5-figure BTC:

    82 + 56 = 138 months

    projected last time under $100000:

    Nov2017 + 138 months = May2029

    conclusion:

    play the long game

    aka, HODL

    disclaimer:

    there’s not enough datapoints for this to be even close to reliable – in addition to many other factors, since each previous bull market peaked just above one of the level data points used here, coincidence in those peaks would translate to coincidence in the duration spent at these levels, i.e. if we pass $100k this cycle and continue much higher and the next bear market (due to inflation or other factors) doesn’t dip below $100k, we could even see a negative first derivative for this most recent interval in the case of passing 100k next month and never dipping below it again

    tl;dr:

    HODL!!!

What do you think?

New York Attorney General Orders Two Unregistered Crypto Lenders to Cease and Desist

New York Attorney General Orders Two Unregistered Crypto Lenders to Cease and Desist

CEEK VR (CEEK) Price Up-surges More Than 200% In a Week

CEEK VR (CEEK) Price Up-surges More Than 200% In a Week