Bitcoin’s Cycles: Unveiling the Predictable Rhythm Bitcoin adheres to a discernible cycle that spans approximately three years and ten months. This cycle is punctuated by the halving of miners’ rewards, a pivotal aspect of Bitcoin’s monetary policy. Remarkably, a halving consistently transpires every 210,000 blocks, with an average block mining time of around 10 minutes. In theory, a halving should occur every four years, yet the actual average block time has consistently been slightly less than 10 minutes. As a result, on average, a halving has taken place approximately every three years and ten months.
The Inaugural Cycle and Subsequent Halvings The journey commenced with the mining of the inaugural Bitcoin blockchain block on January 3, 2009, followed by the first halving in November 2012. Subsequently, three additional halving events transpired in 2016, 2020, and an anticipated one in April or May of 2024. Notably, each of these events heralded a substantial surge in the following year, succeeded by a subsequent bear market.
Halving’s Impact on Supply and the Market The halving event serves to diminish the supply of BTC in circulation. This is due to miners being compelled to vend the BTC they acquire to offset the high costs associated with mining, primarily electricity. Consequently, if miners amass fewer coins, the supply shrinks, though not instantaneously.
Anticipating the Next Cycle The next phase in Bitcoin’s evolution will be marked by the fourth halving, anticipated to transpire at the 840,000th block, expected in April 2024, or at the latest, May. CryptoCon’s analysis indicates that the nadir of each bear market has signaled a shift in Bitcoin’s price trajectory, reaffirmed even after the surge in November.
The Future Phases: Speculative Bubbles and Bear Markets Currently in the fourth phase of the fourth cycle, the upcoming halving will initiate the inaugural phase of the fifth cycle. Historically, this phase has witnessed an upswing in BTC prices, followed by a speculative bubble and a subsequent bear market.
CryptoCon’s Bitcoin Price Forecast According to CryptoCon, the forthcoming bull run is projected to commence on November 28, 2024, with the subsequent all-time high anticipated between early November and late December the following year. The subsequent low of the bear market is predicted within the same timeframe of November to December 2026.
It’s important to highlight that CryptoCon’s forecast pertains to the course of the price cycle rather than specific price predictions. The crux of this prediction hinges on the certainty of the halving cycle, occurring approximately every three years and ten months.
Deciphering the Halving Cycle vs. Price Trends While the halving cycle operates like clockwork, the price trend is subject to various external influences. Surprisingly, despite evolving macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin’s price cycle has impeccably adhered to the rhythm outlined by the November 28 theory. This suggests that the unwavering and predictable halving cycle may have the capacity to override the capricious nature of external conditions.
In conclusion, while CryptoCon’s forecast doesn’t detail exact future prices, it does provide valuable insights into the commencement of phases and the likely occurrence of future peaks.