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Ethereum: I performed 3 types of analysis that show ETH can reach ~8k this cycle (not 10k, 15k, 20k)

**Update 4/20:** WOW, I woke up to over 5,000 likes, I seriously didn’t expect all this love! Thank you all so very much, it truly means a lot!! I posted a (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myc_KexWcrY) as well for anyone interested.

# Summary

Hi all, it’s your friendly data science guy! There are many opinions on how high ETH can reach this cycle, so I looked at the data to get a better answer.

**In 2017:**

* **ETH Dominance** (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) ranged from 9% to 18% (peak) to 30% (July 2017)
* **ETH/BTC** ranged from 0.007 to 0.1 (peak) to 0.15 (June 2017)
* **ETH** was overvalued by ~4096% in 2018 peak relative to logarithmic regression

**In 2021**

* **ETH Dominance** (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) held at 7%
* **ETH/BTC** held at 0.016

**Takeaways**

* If we look at ETH Dominance and ETH/BTC tables below, the average of the likely scenarios in red box are in the **upper 8k range**
* The total crypto market cap went up by 55x from 2013 peak (15B) to 2017 peak (830B)
* In 2021, it is certainly not impossible for crypto market cap to go up 5-10x from 2017 peak
* ETH will likely hit a resistance at 1T market cap. Given that this market cycle is faster than last cycle, its possible that we will peak out sooner in ~Aug/Sep. ETH at 1T market cap (adjusted for increased supply) in Aug is **8,511**
* If we look at ETH Log regression in August and apply a similar over-valuation, it puts ETH at **7,805**
* The most likely outcome is that **ETH will reach ~8k this cycle** and any higher is statistically unlikely.

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# Details

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[ETH Dominance](https://preview.redd.it/no0vrk9bd9u61.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=98a0be992deca64567383c1e503e9eebb82f330c)

[ETH/BTC ratio vs BTC Price](https://preview.redd.it/8wkntkbs89u61.png?width=829&format=png&auto=webp&s=003aebf6cfedf9c0a65d6df2917bd37396b967b8)

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[ETH Log Regression fitted to non-bubble data](https://preview.redd.it/mmsaxaeu99u61.png?width=838&format=png&auto=webp&s=e73d0298cb20e5ad16df5ac1749c0f8a056a16f0)

​

[Bitcoin Cycles compared (shows how current cycle is moving faster than last cycle)](https://preview.redd.it/zlblrygta9u61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef0ce5a0d28a524e8ced03b5e2f6ca52ed712961)




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40 Comments

  1. just going to point out that he copied my video intro, copied my reference to “non-bubble data logarithmic regression” copied my video title, and even copied the inflection in my voice during the intro. I’m not normally this petty, but the dude is straight up plagiarizing me.

  2. Hey— thanks for the analysis.

    I’d like to a point out a few things. In this case— your thesis is only looking at the price and the prior ratios.

    I argue that in this cycle, past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future performance.

    Here’s why— the narrative around ETH has changed. It’s not BTC and it’s not necessarily acting as just a currency.

    It’s acting as a triple point asset (a commodity, yield-bearing capital asset and store of value). Aspect such as ETH 2.0 staking and it acting as the worlds first “internet” bond, haven’t been taken into account.

    That narrative wasn’t there in 2017– I know we should caution people about, “No! This time it’s different”.

    But it’s actually different this time around.

  3. We like friendly data science guys!

    Seems to me that the ETH/BTC ratio is pretty low considering all the functionality found in the Ethereum ecosystem. ~~(The market) Saying it’s only worth something like 1/100 of Bitcoin is a little misguided (maybe lagging) in my opinion.~~

  4. 8k is a nice target and is achievable if The ETH 2.0 releases smoothly, despite the high fees people are still using Ethereum, imagine how much more it will increase if there is less fees.

  5. **Rule VII – Content Theft**

    * See our [Expanded Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/wiki/expanded_rules#wiki_rule_vii_-_content_theft) page for more details about this rule.



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  6. Lets get to 2,500 again first, ok. The market is currently bleeding, with a rogue doge coin pumping and being manipulated.

    I’d like to return to chart analysis, but for now, all credible analysis is out of the window until doge crashes and money into real projects return. The market is shook.

  7. I’m very big on ether but even I don’t think this is realistic. The ETH/BTC ratio isn’t going to increase much from where it is now (0.04). Any of the new/smart money coming into crypto is disproportionately going into BTC which will keep the ratio pretty static or even drive it down.

  8. Sorry to be the contrarian, but I read this and watched the video. This data makes a LOT of assumptions. The premise for the future projection is highly speculative based on some more mainstream adoption.

    The next major flaw is assuming the future will mimic the past, which we have no guarantee of.

    Is he right? Maybe. Maybe not. But regardless, the logic is based on a few bad premises, which skews the predictions.

    I spend a lot of time studying flawed research, and I highly recommend everyone in the crypto space pick up some books on how to look at data as carefully as possible.

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