**Update 4/20:** WOW, I woke up to over 5,000 likes, I seriously didn’t expect all this love! Thank you all so very much, it truly means a lot!! I posted a (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myc_KexWcrY) as well for anyone interested.
Hi all, it’s your friendly data science guy! There are many opinions on how high ETH can reach this cycle, so I looked at the data to get a better answer.
* **ETH Dominance** (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) ranged from 9% to 18% (peak) to 30% (July 2017)
* **ETH/BTC** ranged from 0.007 to 0.1 (peak) to 0.15 (June 2017)
* **ETH** was overvalued by ~4096% in 2018 peak relative to logarithmic regression
* **ETH Dominance** (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) held at 7%
* **ETH/BTC** held at 0.016
* If we look at ETH Dominance and ETH/BTC tables below, the average of the likely scenarios in red box are in the **upper 8k range**
* The total crypto market cap went up by 55x from 2013 peak (15B) to 2017 peak (830B)
* In 2021, it is certainly not impossible for crypto market cap to go up 5-10x from 2017 peak
* ETH will likely hit a resistance at 1T market cap. Given that this market cycle is faster than last cycle, its possible that we will peak out sooner in ~Aug/Sep. ETH at 1T market cap (adjusted for increased supply) in Aug is **8,511**
* If we look at ETH Log regression in August and apply a similar over-valuation, it puts ETH at **7,805**
* The most likely outcome is that **ETH will reach ~8k this cycle** and any higher is statistically unlikely.
[ETH/BTC ratio vs BTC Price](https://preview.redd.it/8wkntkbs89u61.png?width=829&format=png&auto=webp&s=003aebf6cfedf9c0a65d6df2917bd37396b967b8)
[ETH Log Regression fitted to non-bubble data](https://preview.redd.it/mmsaxaeu99u61.png?width=838&format=png&auto=webp&s=e73d0298cb20e5ad16df5ac1749c0f8a056a16f0)
[Bitcoin Cycles compared (shows how current cycle is moving faster than last cycle)](https://preview.redd.it/zlblrygta9u61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef0ce5a0d28a524e8ced03b5e2f6ca52ed712961)
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