Cryptocurrencies have spiraled lower for the past several weeks, falling more quickly than equity markets, as a bearish market environment is exacerbated by so-called stablecoins de-pegging from the US dollar.
Today Major cryptocurrencies look set for another losing week with bitcoin stubbornly trading below the $30,000 mark.
So, in a fight between a bull and a bear, there’s an 80% probability these worst-case scenarios can come into play.
Probability of 1st Worst-case Scenario in the Bear Cycle:
He started with one of these scenarios, which has a much higher chance of occurring.
Let’s get into this now one two three four five six seven eight nine if you close this week in the red you’ll have nine weeks in a row in the red what’s causing this as no one has seen anything like it before.
A big reason for the downwards pressure on bitcoin and cryptocurrency whereas if you remember bitcoin and the S&P are still showing a near 90% correlation the majority of the time since the start of the year a lot is happening in the traditional market as it is pulling down all markets, especially risk markets like bitcoin and crypto.
A New Bear Cycle
Bitcoin is now in a new cycle, and it has historically been in a bear market for several months, with a low of around 28,000.
The analyst is focusing on the retest level of the lower support down here, so the main thing is to discover the bid since it’s possible that there will be a strong and quick drop, with an eventual recovery if we can claim 31. 5k. It’s more than likely that it’ll rise up to the 37 resistance level and then retest for a rally.
And eventually, it might drop below 28000 at first, and anything below 28K puts us at risk of losing support. It has an 80% possibility due to the recent high liquidity selloff.
Start of a relief rally at an all-time high
Looking at various on-chain data, the all-time high of 65.4 percent of bitcoin has historically been hailed as the start of a rally.
Supply has not moved in at least a year. Looking over the past data this metric is a series of rolling higher highs and higher lows all eyes are on when this metric macro rolls over as this has happened in the past signaling the start of a rally brewing out even more.
So Did it Enter the Buy Zone Range Yet?
Bitcoin has entered into a buy zone range. This is because bitcoin has fallen below the two-year moving average?
Hence every time bitcoin has fallen below a two-year moving average we’ve been in a bear market, a big bear market. But technically speaking if you are a believer this has been a great buying opportunity, in the long run.
The point is if you have a long-term outlook then you must huddle positions for bitcoin or Ethereum maybe or a select few cryptocurrencies that you believe in have long term value and the market just has to realize this if you’re selling your bitcoin and Ethereum then you’re betting against this chart 1 billion users by 2024 and 3 billion more users by 2030.
2nd worst-case scenario which is very likely
He further added another scenario to conclude his point. According to the analyst, Bitcoin would have to shut below 28.9 thousand on a monthly basis is a bit doubtful but it may, and this is the price one should look at. Bitcoin may fall below The 14k resistance level is the next major support level, and if it falls this low, it will suggest a prolonged period of lower prices until bitcoin reaches its all-time high.
Hence it is concluded that whoever was in the depths of the last bear market cycle in 2018 2019 2020 and must know where it is heading today fundamentally narratively plumbing infrastructure-wise, we’re in such a better spot for crypto specifically Ethereum and bitcoin have gotten stronger with its value prop and narrative.