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How to do this – from a former top buyer

Tons of posts right now from people about to cave to their emotions and make bad short-term decisions. I thought I’d try to share my experience as a former bag holder and how I wound up successful. I bought near the top in 2017. BTC was boring and “expensive” so I had a mix of shitcoins in my portfolio (I’ll not throw shade on anyone in particular to protect my inbox). For a time, I was a genius. Then all of a sudden I wasn’t. Eventually, I found myself down 50% and had to make some tough decisions. Here’s what I did and how it turned out.

I first had to decide if I was a long-term bull or bear on crypto. Obviously, I’m still here because I think crypto is the future. I also looked at the cyclical price history and surmised that – although it might be a while – crypto would blow by the previous highs. Rather than try to time the market, I decided to DCA.

Three important things about that DCA.

1. It was a monthly buy that I could afford as part of my household budget.
2. I decided to focus on BTC and ETH (I did continue to buy LTC for a while since it was on Coinbase).
3. I concerned myself with other things in order to forget (or not focus on) the DCA. It simply did its thing no matter the price.

Looking back at my buy history, I picked up some ETH near $80. The magic of DCA is that *most* of my crypto was purchased at those low prices. Importantly, I never knew where the market was going in the short term (still don’t), but through my own research, I developed a bull thesis for crypto long term.

Now I use the [rainbow chart](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/) to guide my DCA. In short, I pause it in the orange and start back up in the green (just started it back up with my June purchase yesterday). I had started this before finding the rainbow chart. When your monthly buy is a tiny fraction of your total holdings, it will feel like a waste. The chart formalizes this intuition into a plan, but it’s still DCA.

I know the exact feelings many on this board are experiencing. I can empathize. **IF** after careful consideration, you decide you are a long-term bull like myself, I hope you’ll consider the strategy above. It’s boring. It’s not guaranteed to work. It has worked well for me so far.

This run may or may not be over, but I’m excited to see where we are ~1.5 years after the next BTC halving. Good luck to everyone.



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35 Comments

  1. When I DCA’d into Bitcoin as it was trading around 6-9K, I had literally no emotions. It was just a set time of the month, every month, same amount. If it was down from last month, or up, whatever. If it had gone up in the last 3 days before I bought, whatever.

    Every single one of those buys massively paid off. At the time I literally had no emotion about it. This is the way.

  2. I like the rainbow, confirmes I should buy more.

    I was currently plotting in excel how much I need to buy at what price to drop my average to something I’m more comfortable with ($30k), I basically needs to double down near $23k, is this a terrible plan ? Currently I’m lowering my price by buying 5-8% more weekly

  3. Investing is all about timing – If you went back 2 years, you’d have 10x your investment. If you went back 8 years you’d have 100x your initial stake. But if you went back 12 years, you’d have gone back before Bitcoin was invented and you’d have to invent it, you’d be Satoshi Nakamoto and have a billion Bitcoin!

  4. The boring way is the right way.

    I also bought in at the 2017 ATH (with a large amount, but an amount I knew I wouldn’t need for years to come), and watched it all drop. But since I didn’t need the money, I just stopped following the market. Unsubbed here. Unsubbed r/BTC. etc. Once crypto reentered the mainstream media 3 years later, I checked and was back in the black. I sold a few months ago.

    I might wait for BTC to get lower, then reenter the market and DCA BTC and ETH. It’s not sexy. Some people will make more. But it works.

  5. I’ve got nothing to lose after what I’ve lost. From having enough to purchase a used car from a dealership to buying one from the Picknpull, I’ll do just as shown.

  6. Every Friday (payday) X% of my check goes to crypto. I also take X% and put it to the side for anything and everything. Today a price of that went to buying the dip. If it dips further then Friday I will still be buying my normal X%.

  7. Unfortunately I maxed out how much I can invest in late 2019 (most in vechain). Good news is im still green and if the bull pops off this year or next I’ll have a substantial gain I can cash out little by little as it increases.

    Ideally want to use those gains to dca back in, only this time it’ll be BTC and maybe Ethereum. But spreading out my investments as much as I have has gotten too complicated and uncertain.

  8. I also stopped buying and sold some in march. Just recently started averaging back in. I fully expect near term trend down however.

    As someone from 2016 and watching eth closely, I could not believe that it reached under $100 in 2020. Just insanity to me after the run to $1400 in 2017.

  9. Idk about the rainbow chart. The red “maximum bubble territory” in 2018 was for BTC at 19k. If you plan to hodl for some time, just hodl. More bear/bull markets, the better.

    If you can’t afford it, don’t invest what u can’t lose / need (duh)

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