Tons of posts right now from people about to cave to their emotions and make bad short-term decisions. I thought I’d try to share my experience as a former bag holder and how I wound up successful. I bought near the top in 2017. BTC was boring and “expensive” so I had a mix of shitcoins in my portfolio (I’ll not throw shade on anyone in particular to protect my inbox). For a time, I was a genius. Then all of a sudden I wasn’t. Eventually, I found myself down 50% and had to make some tough decisions. Here’s what I did and how it turned out.
I first had to decide if I was a long-term bull or bear on crypto. Obviously, I’m still here because I think crypto is the future. I also looked at the cyclical price history and surmised that – although it might be a while – crypto would blow by the previous highs. Rather than try to time the market, I decided to DCA.
Three important things about that DCA.
1. It was a monthly buy that I could afford as part of my household budget.
2. I decided to focus on BTC and ETH (I did continue to buy LTC for a while since it was on Coinbase).
3. I concerned myself with other things in order to forget (or not focus on) the DCA. It simply did its thing no matter the price.
Looking back at my buy history, I picked up some ETH near $80. The magic of DCA is that *most* of my crypto was purchased at those low prices. Importantly, I never knew where the market was going in the short term (still don’t), but through my own research, I developed a bull thesis for crypto long term.
Now I use the [rainbow chart](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/) to guide my DCA. In short, I pause it in the orange and start back up in the green (just started it back up with my June purchase yesterday). I had started this before finding the rainbow chart. When your monthly buy is a tiny fraction of your total holdings, it will feel like a waste. The chart formalizes this intuition into a plan, but it’s still DCA.
I know the exact feelings many on this board are experiencing. I can empathize. **IF** after careful consideration, you decide you are a long-term bull like myself, I hope you’ll consider the strategy above. It’s boring. It’s not guaranteed to work. It has worked well for me so far.
This run may or may not be over, but I’m excited to see where we are ~1.5 years after the next BTC halving. Good luck to everyone.