I called the top in 2017 and got roasted for it. I highly recommend reading those replies to gain perspective about sentiment in the last bullrun

Does bullish sentiment on social media give you confidence? Maybe it shouldn’t

This was posted at $16,500. 4 days later bitcoin‘s price would spike to its final peak and crypto winter began. It wouldn’t see a price of $16,500 again for 3 years. I’d like to highlight the bullishness, confidence, and even hostility of some of the replies. This encapsulates the mania phase perfectly. Keep in mind your biases and don’t trade on emotion. FOMO is well known but there is also [optimism bias]( which was paraphrased in The Big Short as “people tend to underestimate the chances of bad things happening”. Don’t be caught having to catch a falling knife.

> be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful

-Warren Buffett

This is the [market bubble cycle]( that was referenced. It describes very generally what a bubble looks like and what factors are part of it. A market bubble describes short term price increase and then a significant correction. It is not saying crypto will fail or will not continue to go up in the long term.

As the chart and past bull runs have shown, there are certain participants and driving forces of a bubble that may help you identify when you’re in one. Media attention? Check. Public enthusiasm of course follows. I’m sure we all have people talking to us about crypto who never have before (or only during a bubble). One of the replies in 2017 was “We are in the Awareness phase. Grandma Betty just learned what Bitcoin was last week.” Grandma Betty is NOT the awareness phase and that is not a bullish signal. As the saying goes “[When even shoeshine boys are giving you stock tips, it’s time to sell](”

Now for the greed and delusion, I see lots of new, dumb money pouring in every time, often with celebrities leading them with market manipulation. It happened in 2017 with ICOs led by celebs and low-cap, low unit-price coins led by McAfee. It’s happening again with elon and meme coins. This new money is the weak hands who throw their money at trash and are easily panicked, so people try to manipulate them into holding. Most of these people are not strong supporters who will weather a multi-year bear market.

You also see the same patterns in crypto. Bitcoin leads the market in gains first, then it’s dominance drops as ETH catches up and alt season begins. Alt season includes every alt, including scams and dead projects, mooning. The gains attract more and more new money until it runs out and momentum stops. Once alts even plateau too much, let alone drop, weak hands panic and flee the market and things begin crashing

Other signals leading up to the peak historically:

* Crypto social media engagement goes parabolic
* Crypto search engine activity hits new ATH
* Exchanges hit the top of the app store
* FUD ramps up (environmentalism currently, which is valid in my view)
* Scams increase exponentially to prey on the new investors

So are we at the peak? I don’t know, but we’ve got every ingredient for a correction. It could go up another 50k before the correction or we could already be on the way down. Be aware of your emotions, bias, and tax responsibilities. Be careful and don’t be afraid to take profits. It’s not anti-crypto to sell high and buy more when it’s low

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  1. This is all good, but I think it’s important to note that the dumb money isn’t buying Bitcoin, Ethereum or even really good alts. They’re buying Doge, Litecoin, Bitcoin cash, eth classic, and other truly useless shit that has no use case or progress towards getting users to adopt it for said use case.

    The fact that something like Polygon can pump amidst this otherwise shitty market is a sign to me that real “alt season” hasn’t started yet and good projects will have their time in the sun before this bull run ends. And this will happen because dumb money is contained to obvious trash coins that are listed on Robinhood, NFT’s and dog coins on BSC.

    Once the trash gets cleaned out, blue chip stuff can rally.

  2. If I look at the chart, the public madness has started but because the crypto market is more mature then 2017 I’ll put my money on a bull run until the end of the summer and the the real big drop in the autumn- winter.

  3. So many people here need to realize this is going to happen. Its not a matter of if it’s when. It’s not different this time we will have a bear market and people need to be prepared for a massive decrease in value once it starts. All the people that say they are holding forever change when they accept we are down 40% and it could be dropping even more and staying there for 2-3 years people panic and sell

  4. Ten posts a day on here ‘call the top’. Well done for being the one that got lucky last time I guess. You’re clearly a genius. Call it this time sure and if you’re right I’ll suck your dick. If you’re female you’ll have to get a dick. I won’t revise the offer

  5. There’s a lot of hurt feelings in these comments for someone saying to “be careful”

    Markets go up and markets go down and sometimes, markets crash. Stressing this point is not a mistake on the OP’s part. It happens.

    Recognize this and temper your enthusiasm. When the inevitable crash happens (because they always do) you’ll be better off for it.

    Whether timed perfectly is not the point.

    Good job OP, even if no one wants to hear it.

  6. Not sure if joe Kennedy’s quote still means the same when anyone with a phone can invest on their own. The only thing that looks different is the amount of adoption compared to 2017. I’d be willing to bet that the next bear market isn’t as severe.

  7. >This is idiotic, institutional investors haven’t even entered the market yet, and the first market participants were the public.

    Ahh yes, the magical institutions that will be pumping your bags meanwhile you’ll be dumping on them.

  8. Yes my friend. Very well put. It is good to take out your initial investments. If you get caught with all the gains in claws of a bear, at least you have your initial ramen noodles to eat this summer 🙂

  9. as a noob, i can relate and confirm every single argument you presented.


    in the past two weeks i did every mistake including fomo, fud, cold hands, buy high sell low, try to re-win my loses and so on and so on.


    for now, i stopped making trades, read an watch YT alot, learn the technology and hope for the best.

  10. This Time is not like 2017, there were NOT MANY institutions adopting bitcoin, no cities using bitcoin to pay their employees. The adoption of bitcoin has changed dramatically! There will be no big dip like there was in 2018. Bitcoin will be bought back aggressively when it drops near 40k again. I would be surprised if it dips lower than 35k ever again.

  11. Definitely good to keep this in mind if (when) the market goes completely parabolic. If you look at the 1 week and 1 month charts leading up to the 2017 market cycle peak the percentage gains on pretty much every cryptocurrency were absolutely bananos.

    I don’t have a crystal ball but if I had to guess I’d say we’re somewhere in the ‘Enthusiasm’ phase and the next big rally will push us into ‘Greed’ in the market bubble cycle, but who knows. I guess it’ll all feel pretty obvious in hindsight.

  12. If we see this chart another 50 times like we did in 2017, then we’ll be at the peak.

    ‘Go up another 50k’…. that’s being pretty pessimistic. All technical indicators point to a 200-300k BTC by end of year. Look at the RSI, power oscillator, Mayer multiple, fear and greed index, and this cycles movement in relation to previous.

    We ain’t seen nothing yet.

  13. I agree we probably are about to have a crash. Still I cannot bring myself to sell anything 🤣. Also I’ve invested more in low cap projects which I actually expect will weather the storm much better than the hyped projects. Curious to hear what you think about how low/large cap coins will be affected.

  14. Yeah I just took out my initial investments because I agree that the peak is soon. I do think the floor will be higher, it won’t be a 90% drop . My guess is 50-60% drop.

    I do think that there will be a new bull run later in the year though, making this different than previous runs. It will be driven by Eths changes to its tokenomics, the triple halvening.

  15. “Kek I’m gonna sell all my bags cause the charts look similar, if I didn’t want stupid risk I wouldn’t have bought all this monopoly money”

    This is gold.

  16. You know while it’s worth sharing your post it’s also worth sharing this comment on your post which was also correct:

    > “This chart doesn’t show the next 50 years where it slowly climbs higher than the current ceiling on the graph”

    you can try and time the market or you can commit to doing the proper amount of research and investing in something you can hold for a very long time. don’t throw your money at shitcoins. Accumulate meaningful tech with real world adoption and you don’t need to panic sell.

  17. Was there a bull run on bitcoin after the alt season in 2017? I feel like there was. I’ve been around since 2014, but I just been DCAing this whole time and not selling, so I haven’t been paying much attention to the fine details of the cycles.



What do you think?

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