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I know this is a cliché at this point, but we’re still early. Here’s why.

I’ve just read an [article about bitcoin](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-worthless-jp-morgan-value-down-083642789.html) from a couple weeks ago that mentioned JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon causing the price to drop and downward test 50k. Obviously, we’ve cemented another 20% since then, but the fact that a single person or company can influence bitcoin‘s price so dramatically (upward *or* downward) means there is still massive room to grow. The day we get nothing but signal noise from a company taking bitcoin off its balance sheet or a country banning bitcoin is the day bitcoin is truly a hedge against inflation. Bitcoin will cease to be a speculative asset and become a true store of value in the proper sense, thus forcing no-coiners to accept that it truly is a legitimate hedge.



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10 Comments

  1. I was there in late 90s when Linux was the Bitcoin of its time. There are a number of similar dynamics.

    In 96-98 Microsoft (who actually coined the term FUD) would send shockwaves thru the nascent linux community by saying some Jamie Dimon-like thing….I had clients tell me to my face that: Linux is going to be sued out of existence and any company that tries to use it will also be sued…etc…etc. Exactly like now they could never answer: “Explain to me exactly how Microsoft is going to *sue linux*? (ie ban bitcoin)”

    Eventually the 800lb Gorilla IBM announced support for Linux in 99 followed closely by Oracle. Both of those were playing their own game — which was keeping MS in check. But nonetheless that effectively changed the game and made people realize linux was here forever.

    The thing to remember is that as much as they *all* hate Bitcoin, they all hate each other even more….so Country A, although it doesn’t like Bitcoin, will realize it can use it to undermine the power of Country B. Likewise Mastercard will do same to Visa, etc etc.

    This is why Bitcoin can’t be stopped *because* it has no leader, no spokesman, no corporate structure.

  2. I like data. Data supports we are still early. Everything else is just noise. Numbers go up. Adoption will happen. People can choose to fight it or join it into realization. Many will try to spin it how it serves them along the way, but everyone owes it to themselves to study.

  3. Important to remember price is not the same as value. There are some short term liquidity issues in BTC (and all crypto) trading that means a single tweet from Elon can moon or red dildo the short term price.

    But as we’ve seen with the China FUD and shit like this, it only takes a bit of time for BTC to resume finding its true value.

    I agree we are early but mainly bc the adoption is still pretty minuscule. I don’t even think all of crypto has hit the 100m users number yet. Let that sink in. Facebook just reported almost 3 Billion users. And smartphone usage is twice that. So just using those as metrics, we are probably at the Facebook circa 2010 mark. Or the iPhone/smartphone 2007 mark. I know BTC doesn’t create cash flow, but as an asset Apple shares have done about 40x since then and FB wasn’t even public then but probably a 20x increase in price. So assuming BtC follows a similar track, I think the floor is a 20x in 10 years, but who knows with the cycles we have. Bitcoin also has a use beyond a store of value/investment (payments, money transfer, etc.)

  4. The fact you believe BS like “Bitcoin down 20% as X happened” means we’re still early.

    If you think Jamie Dimon’s proclaimed sentiment can affect price to the tune of 20%, you don’t understand this market.

    Few things have any measurable effect. In the past: china fud, hashrate drops and Elon Musk. Now it would take the SEC or POTUS to announce a crackdown to see this kind of day-to-day moves.

  5. >Dimon causing the price to drop and downward test 50k.

    Never happened. Stop infering causality from mere poor correlations.

    Bitcoin goes up or down 10% every 3 days. There is always news falsely establishing causation to any of the 20 events happened in those 3 days (always chosing the one that is most convenient for the article narrative, ofc). If it is not backed data and proper use of causal discovery methods: it is BS.

    Remember when Musk made Bitcoin tank 50% in May? Well, probably never happened. Most likely it was miners from China selling before the mining ban was widespread.

    Edit: I do not understand the downvotes.

    Edit2: I do not say single events cannot move the price. I just say establishing causation is tough specially if no mechanism for the price move is known.

  6. This is pure market manipulation plain and simple!! Kinda like the article in January where JPM said bitcoin wouldnt go over 40k again its gross and needs to stop 🤢🤢🤮🤮.

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