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If Bitcoin Doesn’t Cross $100K By the End of 2021, PlanB Says His Stock-to-Flow Model Is in Trouble (short audio clip)

If Bitcoin Doesn’t Cross $100K By the End of 2021, PlanB Says His Stock-to-Flow Model Is in Trouble (short audio clip)



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8 Comments

  1. The right way to approach the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow price model of Plan B is as a speculative projection of a trend observed in the present that could continue.

    As such, it should be compared to Moore’s law which predicted that the number of transistors in microprocessors would double every 2 years.

    By considering the Stock-to-Flow model as an empirical observation of the present concerning the Bitcoin price that is projected to anticipate its future behavior, you will be able to give it the minimal importance it deserves.

    Do not make the mistake of buying Bitcoin by blindly following the speculative predictions of this model.

    I think we are right to be Bullish for the future of Bitcoin, but for the right reasons. Predictions on its price based on S2F Model are not part of these good reasons.

  2. That’s not what he said; he said near the end of the clip if you actually listen that if the price does not go above 100k by the end of NEXT year, then the model has failed in his eyes.

    It is designed as an average price of 100k for this 4 year cycle (ad measured by the halvening)

  3. It’s funny he say that he’s little surprised by the performance of S2F model by itself, as you shouldn’t be able to model the markets.

    But it’s still pretty accurate to this day, could be luck, who knows.

  4. Good clip, PlanB explained that his S2F isn’t a very complicated model (in fact, it is a simple regression analysis), and clarified that essentially, the average pride of BTC should revolve around the100k mark for more than half a halving cycle.

What do you think?

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