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Is The S2F Model Now Invalidated? Majority Of Bitcoiners Believe Bitcoin Will Stay Below $100K In 2021 ⋆ ZyCrypto

Is The S2F Model Now Invalidated Majority Of Bitcoiners Believe Bitcoin Will Stay Below $100K In 2021


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Given bitcoin and altcoins are experiencing one of the most violent crashes in recent memory, investors are not so bullish on the OG cryptocurrency.

That’s according to the results of a Twitter survey conducted by PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of the famous stock-to-flow (S2F) model.

“What A Difference Three Months Can Make!”

Bitcoin permabull PlanB recently asked his 586,000 followers about the possibility of bitcoin hitting $100,000 by 2021 year-end. Notably, he had asked the same question back in March when BTC was valued at $55,000.

To the surprise of no one, the number of respondents who think the bitcoin price will not reach $100,000 by 2021 has increased from a mere 16% in March to 41% in June. Moreover, the number of bitcoiners calling for $288,000 BTC has reduced by at least 50%.

As things stand, most people see bitcoin remaining below $100,000. Just three months ago, $288K and $100K were the most popular answers amongst PlanB’s followers.

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The bitcoin stock-to-flow model popularized on Twitter by analyst PlanB shows a statistically critical relationship between the asset’s scarcity and its value. The crux of the model is that bitcoin’s shrinking supply is bound to increase the price. The latest iteration of the model predicts that bitcoin’s price could reach as high as $288,000 before December 2021.

Time For Plan C?

Truth be told, times are different now compared to earlier in the year. Case in point, the crypto market is presently reeling from Elon Musk’s energy FUD which might take months or even years to subside. As if that’s not enough, the People’s Republic of China is breathing down the necks of bitcoin miners and investors. 

All these factors have contributed to bitcoin shedding over 50% of its value since mid-April. Today, the flagship cryptocurrency dropped below the psychologically important $30K level for the first time since January 28. It has, however, recovered to $32,450.40 at press time.

BTCUSD Chart By TradingView

As a result of the prevailing bearish sentiment, bitcoin could very well fail to break through the $100,000 handle by the end of the year. This would mean that the most modest version of PlanB’s model was invalidated.

While a part of CryptoTwitter says the model is already broken, others reveal that they will continue HODLing until BTC hits $500K and they will not hold PlanB responsible even if BTC somehow ends up at zero.

Meanwhile, PlanB remains extremely confident about his prediction and the S2F, as he noted a few days ago that bitcoin is getting ready for a 2013-esque bull rally.





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