So many crypto veterans are convinced that we are destined to live through these insane bull runs followed by prolonged crypto winters in an endless cycle. The fact is- crypto has only been around for about a decade. I’ve linked the entire history of bitcoins price below for reference:
In the price chart you can see approximately 3 clear boom periods, one around 2014, one in 2017, and one now. There were actually a few more in the early days that were smaller, less prolonged, and also below the scale of the graph because it was so long ago.
Even the most veteran crypto person has probably only lived through 2 crypto winters. Why is everyone so confident that these winters are inevitable on the basis of 2 data points?? I get that people want to use history to provide some context but there just isn’t enough data on crypto price behavior to make any conclusions one way or another.
Even beyond that, investor psychology is such an important driver of these big price swings- if the biggest crypto veterans are convinced that good times follow big crashes- then folks may just buy the dip all the way down and avoid a crypto winter all together.
TLDR- no ones knows the future- there could be a huge sell off or their could not- trying to read the tea leaves from one or two previous bull runs is almost certainly not a useful exercise.