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No one knows fuck all about what will happen in the future

So many crypto veterans are convinced that we are destined to live through these insane bull runs followed by prolonged crypto winters in an endless cycle. The fact is- crypto has only been around for about a decade. I’ve linked the entire history of bitcoins price below for reference:

https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/3gz-6O7TZggOuiXjd0fz8QpbiAA=/1509×0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/image57-f97260e2c17742ea80b289cff17378e2.png

In the price chart you can see approximately 3 clear boom periods, one around 2014, one in 2017, and one now. There were actually a few more in the early days that were smaller, less prolonged, and also below the scale of the graph because it was so long ago.

Even the most veteran crypto person has probably only lived through 2 crypto winters. Why is everyone so confident that these winters are inevitable on the basis of 2 data points?? I get that people want to use history to provide some context but there just isn’t enough data on crypto price behavior to make any conclusions one way or another.

Even beyond that, investor psychology is such an important driver of these big price swings- if the biggest crypto veterans are convinced that good times follow big crashes- then folks may just buy the dip all the way down and avoid a crypto winter all together.

TLDR- no ones knows the future- there could be a huge sell off or their could not- trying to read the tea leaves from one or two previous bull runs is almost certainly not a useful exercise.



View Reddit by Kemba4HeismanView Source

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33 Comments

  1. Thinking that you know WHEN based on historical data is the mistake. But assuming that bears will follow bulls and then bulls will follow those bears, that’s just logical. The market doesn’t exist in a vacuum. There are significant external, macroeconomic factors that can and do impact how much money can flow into the market. It is inevitable that we will go through cycles in the future when not as much capital can flow into crypto and we’ll have bear markets. And it is also likely that we will go through cycles where even more capital is flowing than currently, which will lead to even bigger bulls.

    I know we’re super hype right now, but nothing is up-only.

  2. Definitely. People always seem so certain when they talk about past patterns of the market. Really all anyone can do is trust their gut and cash out their initial investment when they get their chance

  3. No one knows the future but warning people that it could drop 80% again and to not yolo their life savings into crypto is not the worst thing.

    When you see the suicide hotline pinned at the top of the sub during the bears… you sort of feel an obligation to tell people to be cautious during the bulls.

  4. Exactly when a crash will happen is unknown but it will happen. Every assets class that has every existed has bull and bear markets, stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, gold, etc.

    The idea that crypto is magic and only goes up would be the unique exception in the history of markets.

  5. This time is different yells another guy from a soapbox. This time…institutions, bullish, bullish, bullish, etc…no one knows..

    Keep buying the top man, keep buying price discovery mode coins…it will keep going higher forever! This time is different.

    Heard this all before man, this is a carbon copy of 2017 mania phase beginning. 4 more months….4 more months young padwan.

    Just wait until XYZ alt coins are firing into the sky like missiles, and the real mania begins.

  6. The expression no one knows the future doesn’t apply to everything. If I throw a rock with a known force and a known angle I can “predict” where it will exactly land. If I have H and O in the right quantities and right conditions (pressure temperature etc) I can predict the exact amount of H20 that will be formed.

    For the things that we have already discovered the fundamental laws we can “predict” the future

    Now for the ones that we don’t now the laws yet we use historical data to predict the future. That what the technical analysis is, identifying historic patterns and correlating them probabilistically with potential outcomes. If you see a S-H-S there is a high probability the next move to be…

    So we need to understand that it’s a probability not a certainty.

    And since the majority is using the same methods/indexes it moves towards the same direction.

    That’s why the majority claims that BTC is in bull run based on the historical data and the hypothesis is that it will remain in the bull cycle until proven otherwise.

  7. Who knows where it will go crypto has gained notoriety in the past few months we are currently in unknown territory but what goes up must come down. Unless we have another global pandemic or a war I don’t think it will fall like previously seen

  8. I couldn’t agree more. No one know the future. Crypto is evolving and new cycles will be born. The more utility crypto gains with smart contracts and such will make it (I believe) much more durable and those winters will be likely be much less desolate.

What do you think?

Christian Angermayer Invests in Crypto Simply Because He's "Curious"

Christian Angermayer Invests in Crypto Simply Because He’s “Curious”

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