Honestly, I see it absent in every post. The exclusive focus on market cap assumes that no new money is coming in to crypto. This is a terrible assumption. There is new money coming in to crypto all of the time. The total cap of crypto is growing. It will likely be 5 – 10X in 5 years. This makes an absolute world of difference when picking your coins.
BTC is a perfect example. So many geniuses are proclaming the BTC will hit $1M. Oh, really? Take a look at its dominance. It going DOWN. BTC is losing market ground to alt coins and has been for a long time. So when you try and predict the price, assume the dominance is down in the future and the total crypto cap is up. What’s the price of BTC now? $200k-ish depending on your guess. Yeah, not quite the 20X the headlines talk about, huh.
Now do it with ADA or ETH. Is their dominance going up or down? Now predict the dominance under your guess at total crypto cap. Is it better than BTC? Yeah, probably is. Probably much better than BTC.
We keep talking about BTC like it will always be the number 1 market cap with ‘digital gold’ talk but it won’t guys. It is losing ground RAPIDLY as altcoins with clear understandable use cases eat up its dominance.
My point is that market cap is not a good metric. Use dominance and total crypto cap. Your whole strategy will change away from 2-5X coins and toward 20-100X coins.
E: Guys the ‘cycle theory’ is nonsense. There is no such thing as ‘alt coin season‘. When alt coins really started to explode on to the scene in 2018 the market went crazy for them. Then the market corrected itself over a couple years as people got impatient waiting for the promised use cases of alts to develop. It happened once guys. Once. This is not a cycle. This is not seasonal. And frankly the data clearly shows this when you zoom out. Fluctuations are not cycles. Cycles occur with set amplitudes and frequency. There is no such phenomena in the long term BTC dominance chart. BTC dominance will decrease with time as I said.