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Today no Bitcoin blocks were mined for almost 2 hours

From [23:39 UTC](https://explorer.bitcoin.com/btc/block/00000000000000000000c2c9d28a30ccf4df0b8460271b9a4016742f755876e0) to [01:26 UTC](https://explorer.bitcoin.com/btc/block/000000000000000000022f056f312e8dd4c6e7e59dc17508383be2f94c9b4eb9).

Maybe this is normal and I’m panicking for no reason.

In normal conditions it takes around 10 minutes to mine a block, 107 minutes is 10.7 times that number. Unless a pretty unlikely event happened, to me (I hope I’m wrong, I’m tired and should be sleeping right now) this seems to be linked to power outages in China:

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-plunges-14-to-51541-due-to-power-outage-in-china-6784691.html

https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/04/20674195/power-outage-in-chinas-xinjiang-region-may-have-triggered-bitcoin-selloff

If miners located in proximity to each other suffer from a power outage and this causes the time to mine a block to multiply by ~11, the most likely reason seems to be that 10 out of 11 miners are located in that area. This is much higher than [estimates of 65%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1200477/bitcoin-mining-by-country/) of the hashpower being in China and would mean that Bitcoin mining is extremely centralized.

Could anybody provide an alternative explanation as for why it took so much time to mine block 679741?



View Reddit by LudoboiiView Source

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26 Comments

  1. BTC hashrate has dropped significantly recently leading to longer block times, and yes it does seem like it’s connected to Chinese miners. This specific block took longer because of that plus random variance in block times, which is supposed to be on average 10 minutes but can be longer or shorter. Right now the average is more like 14 minutes with outliers like this.

  2. Taking longer to find a block is completely normal, a few here are pooing themselves over 51% hashrate attacks and China owning everything. THIS IS NORMAL AND EXPECTED PEOPLE.

    The probability for a block to not being found for x amount of minutes or longer is:

    F(x) = e^-x/10

    Where 10 is the *expected* time to mine a block and -x represents the time between blocks not being found.

    Therefore the probability to not find a block in 120 minutes is:

    e^(-120/10) = 0.00000614421%. If we split 24 hours into 10 minute segments (the median time for a block reward) we get 144 blocks representing a day. Therefore, the likelihood of a block *not* being found for 2 hours occurs once every 1130 days (assuming stable hashrate).

    Add on top of this *natural variance* with the recent drop in hashrate and you get a momentary longer than normal period where no new blocks are found. This is totally normal and will redistribute the workload amoungst the rest of the miners. The two week difficulty adjustment will account for this drop in hashrate so that it keeps the *average* to 10 minutes.

    Remember that it’s always an average, theoretically no new blocks can be found for years (although becoming exponentially difficult to the point of absurdity).

  3. Thats the reason why this whole market has to move away from bitcoin if it wants to survive. There must be a point when we will abandon the sinking ship.
    Lightening is not functional and btc has no on chain scalability. The sooner btc is flipped, the better for all of crypto

  4. Bitcoin is extremly centralized. Thats why I don’t want to own it. It is plausible that CCP changes a few laws and takes control of hashrate or perhaps they already have behind scenes. They could begin double spending making bitcoin worthless. Also plausible that CCP waits until even more western money gets flown into bitcoin, so the damage is greater.

  5. Timing of blocks is by chance and hash power. The difficulty adjusts based on the hash power.

    There was as significant drop in total hash power but not 10x less so likely there is an element of chance but yes Bitcoin is always at risk of a major drop in hash power as the current block may take very long before the next block is mined to readjust difficulty.

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