I don’t have the energy to spend on explaining why I trust technical analysis on a macro scale (TA). So if you are a non-believer, stop reading please.
For the others: below are **two major reasons why it is very likely that BTC has not yet reached the peak of this bullcycle**.
*As always, please do your own research and this is definitely absolutely not financial advice.*
1/ **Pi Cycle Top Indicator** ([source](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/))
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days.
It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.
For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.
It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number. It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. Though in this instance it does so with a high degree of accuracy over the past 7 years.
**For now, the 111DMA and 350DMx2 haven’t crossed yet, but as you can see they’re getting closer. I will personally only review a percentage of my BTC position when those moving averages cross.**
The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool.
It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.
To do this, it uses a moving average (MA) line, the 2yr MA, and also a multiplication of that moving average line, 2yr MA x5.
Buying Bitcoin when price drops below the 2yr MA (green line) has historically generated outsized returns. Selling Bitcoin when price goes above the 2yr MA x 5 (red line) has been historically effective for taking profit.
**For now, the Bitcoin price has not gone above the 2yr MA x 5 so also still riding the waves here.**
Please feel free to send some feedback.