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Why Bitcoin has not reached the peak of this cycle, yet.

I don’t have the energy to spend on explaining why I trust technical analysis on a macro scale (TA). So if you are a non-believer, stop reading please.

For the others: below are **two major reasons why it is very likely that BTC has not yet reached the peak of this bullcycle**.

*As always, please do your own research and this is definitely absolutely not financial advice.*

1/ **Pi Cycle Top Indicator** ([source](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/))

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days.

It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.

For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.

It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number. It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. Though in this instance it does so with a high degree of accuracy over the past 7 years.

**For now, the 111DMA and 350DMx2 haven’t crossed yet, but as you can see they’re getting closer. I will personally only review a percentage of my BTC position when those moving averages cross.**

2/ **2-year MA Multiplier** ([source](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoininvestor-tool/))

The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool.

It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.

To do this, it uses a moving average (MA) line, the 2yr MA, and also a multiplication of that moving average line, 2yr MA x5.

Buying Bitcoin when price drops below the 2yr MA (green line) has historically generated outsized returns. Selling Bitcoin when price goes above the 2yr MA x 5 (red line) has been historically effective for taking profit.

**For now, the Bitcoin price has not gone above the 2yr MA x 5 so also still riding the waves here.**

Please feel free to send some feedback.



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14 Comments

  1. How do you believe the playing field change with institutional money now in it, effects how well you can use models that have proven themselve in the past?

    You say it has been solid for the last 7 years and thus has a predictive value. Some might argue that’s not true now that the market has changed significantly due to these new large players.

    What’s your take on their role ?

  2. The simplest way is not to try to target the peak.

    Buying in DCA mode in an automated way is an excellent strategy for the majority of people who want to enjoy Bitcoin without risk.

    The rest is to be patient and keep confidence in the Bitcoin revolution.

    It consists of becoming a Bitcoin HODLer no matter what.

  3. **Bitcoin(BTC) Basic Info:** [Website](https://bitcoin.org) – r/Bitcoin – [Abstract](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_basicinfo#wiki_short_description) – [History](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_basicinfo#wiki_history) – [Exchanges](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_basicinfo#wiki_exchanges) – [Wallets](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_basicinfo#wiki_wallets)

    **Biases(Updated July, 2019):** [Arguments For](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_pros) & [Arguments Against](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/Bitcoin_cons) | **CryptoWikis:** [Policy](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/wiki/policy#wiki_cryptowikis_program_-_.28work_in_progress.29) – [Contribute](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoWikis/wiki/contributing)

    *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoCurrency) if you have any questions or concerns.*

  4. I don’t put much stock in lookintobitcoin indicators, they act like they predicted the last few bullrun tops, but with indicators that weren’t created until after the last bullrun. All they did is throw numbers at the wall until they found formulas that fit the previous data. They haven’t predicted anything, yet.

  5. > I don’t have the energy to spend on explaining why I trust technical analysis on a macro scale (TA). So if you are a non-believer, stop reading please.

    I’m a believer, but the vibe you give off is super condescending, so I stopped reading.

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