Bitcoin is struggling to defend the $60,000 mark these days.
The Bitcoin price drop
It all started on Monday, when the price of BTC was between $65,000 and $66,000 but probably due to the passing of the US infrastructure bill, it started to fall.
Initially, it was down around $64,000 but then it didn’t even hold this support. In fact, the next day the price dropped to below $59,000 and then climbed back up to $61,000.
Even though yesterday it tried to stay around this figure, today it fell back below $60,000 and even touched $59,000.
The $60,000 mark is a rather important support, as it has held up in one way or another since October 15, when the price briefly rested there and then jumped to $62,000.
It is also a level that had last been touched in previous months in May when it acted as resistance for the failed recovery attempt after the late April crash.
$60,000, a psychological threshold rather than support for Bitcoin
Excluding the last few months, Bitcoin’s average daily price had only been above $60,000 for eight days in its entire history, once in mid-March of this year, and for seven consecutive days in mid-April.
In contrast, over the past two months, Bitcoin’s daily price has been above $60,000 for 31 days, including 20 consecutive days between October 28 and November 16.
The support at which the price of BTC rebounded the day before yesterday was actually $58,400, so 60,000 should not be considered support, but merely a psychological threshold around which the average daily price has been fluctuating for three days now.
It is therefore difficult at this moment to imagine an imminent collapse of the Bitcoin price, unless it breaks the support at around $58,400.
According to several analysts, the decline and lateralization around $60,000 that began on Monday would not be the beginning of a new bear market, and if the support positioned just above $58,000 holds, some say that a return to around $62,000 or $63,300 is also possible sometime today, tomorrow, or in the next few days.
Some analysts also argue that the current decline could be temporary, and that the bull run could resume any day now.
Taking the bull run of late 2017 as a reference, there are some similarities with the trend of late 2021, but with a trend that seems to be “late” compared to the same days four years ago.
For example, analyst TechDev argues that the delay updates in a range between 5 and 8 days, and that the price of Bitcoin could jump to $80,000 or $90,000.
Looking for something like this on the #BTC daily.
Turquoise peak did not get as high as expected. Break of yellow RSI line did confirm correction.
PA continues to stay 5-8 days behind 2017 since July.
Recovery by RSI break above yellow line, possibly at 80-90K by EOM. pic.twitter.com/rK1qS1O4YC
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) November 17, 2021
Comparing bull runs
However, it is also worth noting that many analysts believe that the 2021 bull run was too different from the 2017 bull run to take the latter as a reference point.
In 2017, a large speculative bubble began to inflate on November 13, which tripled the price of BTC by a factor of three in little more than a month, only to deflate completely in the following month and a half. If TechDev were right, there would be time until November 21, 2021, for this year’s trend to follow a similar path.